WAITING FOR RATES TO DROP ISN'T A PLAN. IT'S A GUESS.
I keep hearing some version of the same thing from buyers right now: "We're going to wait until rates come down."
Fair enough, rates might come down. The problem starts when "might" quietly turns into "will," and six months later somebody has built their entire home-buying plan around an interest-rate prediction nobody actually made.
There are plenty of legitimate reasons to wait to buy a house. Maybe the payment doesn't work. Maybe you need a bigger down payment. Maybe you're carrying debt you should probably deal with first. Maybe your job situation isn't stable enough yet. Maybe every house you've looked at lately is overpriced, poorly maintained, and somehow still has twelve shades of grey laminate flooring.
Wait.
But if your whole plan is, "Rates will definitely be lower next spring," understand what you're actually doing. You're not avoiding a gamble, you're making one.
WHAT THE BANK OF CANADA ACTUALLY SAID
On September 2, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25%.
More importantly, it said the upside risks to inflation had increased. The Bank specifically pointed to things like elevated oil prices and new tariffs that could add to business costs and keep inflation pressure higher than expected. Its position going forward was basically what you'd expect from a central bank: they'll keep watching the economy and inflation and adjust policy if they need to.
In other words, they didn't promise another cut, and they didn't say a hike is coming either. They don't know yet, which is mildly inconvenient considering half the internet apparently does.
That's the part buyers need to understand. Nobody at the Bank of Canada is standing there saying, "Hang tight until March and we'll knock 75 basis points off for you." If somebody is telling you rates are definitely going lower, they're predicting. Maybe they'll be right, maybe they won't.
WHY "I'LL WAIT FOR RATES TO DROP" WAS NEVER REALLY A STRATEGY
Interest rates matter, obviously. A lower mortgage rate can reduce your monthly payment and the total amount of interest you pay over time. On a mortgage of several hundred thousand dollars, even a modest change matters.
But buying a house involves more than one number. You're not just watching mortgage rates, you're also watching house prices, inventory, competition, your own income, your debt, your down payment and what sellers are willing to negotiate. All of those things move, and they don't move together just to make your life easier.
Rates could come down while prices rise.
Rates could stay flat while inventory keeps growing and sellers get more flexible.
Rates could come down and suddenly a bunch of buyers who have also been "waiting for rates to drop" pile back into the market at the same time.
Or none of that could happen. That's the point. Waiting gets treated like the safe option because technically you're doing nothing, but doing nothing is still a decision.
WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING IN GREATER MONCTON
This is where the local numbers matter more than some national headline written for Toronto, Vancouver and the rest of Canada all at once.
Greater Moncton has softened: by August, there were 1,585 active residential listings, up 6.3% from August 2025. Months of inventory had climbed to 6.2 from 5.0 a year earlier. Sales were down 15.3% year over year, and the median days on market had increased to 47 from 42.
That's not a booming seller's market, and frankly, buyers should be happy about that. There is more inventory. Houses are taking longer to sell. Sellers are having to compete for buyers again. Buyers have more time to think, more opportunity to negotiate and, in some cases, more ability to walk away from a seller who still thinks it's 2021.
The market has been moving in that direction through the summer. Months of inventory sat at 4.8 in May, 4.5 in June, 4.9 in July and then jumped to 6.2 in August. Median days on market moved from 29.5 days in May to 36 in June, 38 in July and 47 in August.
That's good news for buyers, and it also means the lazy "BUY NOW BEFORE PRICES EXPLODE" pitch is nonsense. But so is assuming the opposite.
PRICES HAVEN'T EXACTLY FALLEN THROUGH THE FLOOR EITHER
Here's where the story gets more interesting.
The average residential sale price in Greater Moncton in August was $374,090, down 3.5% from August 2025. The median was $357,000, down 1.6%. So yes, prices were softer in August, but one month is one month.
Looking at the first eight months of 2026 gives a better picture. The year-to-date average price was $383,191, down just 1.0% from the same period last year. The year-to-date median was $361,500, actually up 0.3%. That's not a crash, and it's not a runaway market either. It's a market where inventory has increased, sales have slowed, buyers have more leverage, and prices are proving a lot stickier than some people expected.
Which brings us back to waiting for rates. If you're sitting on the sidelines because you believe mortgage rates are about to drop and Moncton house prices are about to collapse at the same time, neither half of that theory has happened yet. Could it? Sure, but that's a prediction too.
A BANK OF CANADA CUT DOESN'T AUTOMATICALLY MEAN YOUR MORTGAGE RATE DROPS THE SAME AMOUNT
There's another piece of this that gets butchered constantly.
The Bank of Canada's overnight rate is not your mortgage rate.
Changes to the overnight rate have a more direct impact on prime lending rates and variable-rate mortgages. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by other things too, including bond yields, lender funding costs and what financial markets expect inflation and interest rates to do next. So if the Bank of Canada cuts by 0.25%, that does not automatically mean your five-year fixed mortgage drops by 0.25% the next morning.
Sometimes fixed rates move before the Bank does because markets are anticipating a change.
Sometimes they don't move much at all.
Sometimes other pressures are pushing in the opposite direction.
Mortgage pricing is annoyingly more complicated than "Bank cuts, mortgage cheaper," because apparently somebody felt buying a house needed another layer.
THE MATH THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS
Here's what I'd be doing instead of trying to predict the next Bank of Canada meeting: run your numbers based on the mortgage rates that actually exist today.
What can you comfortably afford? Not what the bank says you can technically qualify for. What can you actually live with every month after the mortgage, property taxes, heating, insurance, maintenance and the usual pile of expenses nobody remembers until they own the house.
How much cash will you have left after the down payment and closing costs?
Are you carrying high-interest debt?
Is your employment stable?
Are you planning to stay in the area long enough for buying to make sense?
Those are real questions. A mortgage broker can run those numbers with you using today's rates, your actual income and your actual debt. I also have a mortgage calculator on my website if you want to start playing with the numbers before having that conversation.
If the numbers work comfortably today and you find the right house, I wouldn't automatically put your life on hold waiting for a future mortgage rate that may or may not show up. If the numbers don't work today, that matters too. Don't force it.
SOMETIMES WAITING IS ABSOLUTELY THE RIGHT MOVE
I don't subscribe to the usual real estate nonsense that "it's always a great time to buy." It isn't. Sometimes buying a house is a terrible idea.
If the payment is going to leave you broke every month, wait.
If buying wipes out every dollar you have, wait.
If you have a pile of expensive consumer debt, maybe deal with that before celebrating home ownership with an empty bank account.
If you're not sure you even want to stay in Moncton, don't buy a house because somebody told you renting is "throwing money away." That line should have been retired around the same time as vertical blinds.
And if the only houses you can afford are houses you don't actually want, there is no prize for buying one anyway.
The point of this article is not that you should buy now. The point is that waiting because your financial situation says "not yet" is very different from waiting because you've convinced yourself you know where interest rates are going.
One is planning. The other is guessing.
THE PART NOBODY LIKES: THERE IS NO PERFECT TIME
This is the frustrating part. There is no bell that rings at the bottom of the market, and there's no email from the Bank of Canada saying, "Congratulations, Shane, this is officially the cheapest possible week to borrow money for the next ten years."
You make the best decision you can with the information you have at the time. Right now, the Greater Moncton market is giving buyers more selection, more time and more negotiating power than they had a few years ago. At the same time, prices have not collapsed, and the Bank of Canada is not promising lower rates. That isn't good news or bad news, it's just the market, and markets are messy.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Should you wait for lower rates before buying a home in Moncton?
Maybe.
But don't wait simply because you've decided rates are definitely coming down. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% in September and said inflation risks had increased. Greater Moncton inventory is up, sales are slower and homes are taking longer to sell. Prices have softened in some areas, but broadly speaking they have not fallen off a cliff. That's the reality.
If buying works for your finances today and you find the right property, don't let somebody else's interest-rate prediction make the decision for you. If buying doesn't work today, don't force it either. Keep saving. Pay down debt. Improve your position. Keep watching the market.
Just make sure you're waiting for a reason you can actually explain, not because somebody online promised you rates would be lower by spring.
Those people are remarkably hard to find when spring arrives.
If you want to find out what your actual numbers look like right now, today's rate, not a guessed-at one, that's a fifteen-minute conversation, not a commitment.
Call or text 506-852-6477. No pressure, just straight answers.
Strong Roots - Smart Moves
Shane MacPherson, REALTOR®, eXp Realty
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